Article: Fourth and Long 7.26.07: NFC Preview and Playoff Picks

This week, we move on to the considerably more wide open NFC. Teams move up and down in this conference like a yo-yo, and to say some teams are one player away is not that much a stretch. With that said, here is what my crystal ball says.....


NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles - Division Winner, 1st Round Bye

While some teams are one player away from being a contender, the Eagles are probably one player away from NOT being a contender. The health of Donovan McNabb is the paramount issue this team faces. He played great until his knee injury last year, then the team played great in his absence and made the playoffs. How that really effected McNabb's mentality and ego will be another big factor in the way this year goes for them.

McNabb will have a lot of developing weapons at his disposal this year. Brian Westbrook is one of the best overall backs in the league, producing almost 2000 yards rushing/receiving as he was able to stay healthy for almost the entire season. For the Eagles to be as dominant as they could be though, either third year vet Reggie Brown or second year man Hank Baskett will have to step up and lead the team in receiving. If they both develop their full skills, the Eagles could have their best 1-2 receiving threat in years. Adding former Ram Kevin Curtis as a slot receiver also opens up a new dimension for the team, and will open up tight end LJ Smith for more mid length passes as well. Keep in mind that we're talking about a team that had the third ranked pass offense in the league actually improving, and you get an idea how many points they could put up.

The defense was in the top third of the league against the pass, lead by possibly the best secondary in the league. Brian Dawkins is still a disruptive force at safety, and both Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown are good if not great starters at corner. Up front, they need to improve against the run, where they ranked 26th last year. To that end, they revamped their linebacker corps, especially with the addition of Takeo Spikes. If Javon Kearse and fellow defensive end Darren Howard are able to join McNabb and Westbrook in staying healthy all year, the D could actually be the Eagles strong point.

The Eagles this year might be a lot like a Fabrege Egg - fragile, but pretty to watch if they do not break.

2. Dallas Cowboys - Wild Card playoff team

More questions abound here. Is Wade Phillips the man to win the first playoff game in a decade in Big D? Will Terrell Owens melt down in his second season, or step up and reclaim his position as the top wideout in the league? Will Tony Romo recover from his infamous fumble to make the Pro Bowl again?

The biggest question - and this will be a blow to Owens' ego - is the one about Romo. The framework is there for the offense to be good - Leonard Davis added to an already decent offensive line, one of the most dynamic receiving corps in the league and an underrated running game. A full off season as the starter working with the "A" team should do nothing but take Romo to the next level, but how many times have we seen a player hit the sophomore wall? Of course, Romo is a mature second year player at 27 years old, and should handle the pressure well.

Phillips comes over from San Diego, where he lead a Chargers defense that was disruptive and lead the league in sacks. There are no superstars, but they were able to be a top 10 team against the run. The weakness was against he pass, where the cornerbacks will get help from the addition of Ken Hamlin. If Phillips is able to protect Roy Williams' coverage deficiencies, there could be a big improvement here as well.

The 10 year drought should be finished, as the Cowboys will be a challenging playoff matchup for any team in the NFC.

3. Washington Racially Insensitive Name - will make some Wild Card noise

Washington is an interesting team. Joe Gibbs has not done much to add to his legacy since his return, but this could be the season he does. If he sticks by young QB Jason Campbell - provided Campbell deserves the faith - they could lead the team towards a playoff berth for the second time in Gibbs fourth season.

Campbell will need to be good in order to improve a passing game, as his receivers have a lot of unrealized talent. Santana Moss has the talent to be a Pro Bowl starter, and tight end Chris Cooley is slowly emerging as one of the best in the league. If Antwan Randle El plays consistently at the level he has shown flashes of, and Brandon Lloyd realized he is not as great as he thinks he is, the passing game could emerge as a strength.

The rushing game is in good shape, with Clinton Portis returning to platoon with Ladell Betts, who filled in last year when Portis went down to injury and rushed for over 1100 yards while providing 53 catches as well. If they adjust well to sharing, they could be the top tandem in the league.

The defense, usually a strong point of Gibb teams, was awful last year, falling all the way to 31st overall. To improve, they have a revamped secondary, with Shawn Springs returning from injury, former starter Fred Smoot returning from a humbling time as a Viking, and former Cardinal starter David Macklin. None are superstars, but each can be solid and the competition from a deep field should help. They join a hard hitting, young safety tandem in Sean Taylor and top pick LaRon Landry. To help out against the run, London Fletcher-Baker and his 146 tackles from a year ago was added at the linebacker position. Little has been done to help out the defensive line though, so Fletcher-Baker should have plenty of opportunity to increase that total.

4. New York Giants - not in the playoffs

What do you get when you take an 8-8 playoff team featuring a shaky young QB and:

1. Take away an All-Pro running back who carried the team on his own more often than not last year;
2. Cut the most experienced member of a good offensive line, who just happened to protect your young, shaky QB's blindside, and;
3. Do nothing to improve a porous defense that would have a hard time stopping a brisk wind?

The final answer will be on the field this year in the Meadowlands, but a good guess is that it is not going to be pretty.

On top of all these issues, coach Tom Coughlin is also coaching for his life this year, which should make his normally frenetic side line presence that much worse. If the team hated playing for him when they were winning, how are they going to deal with him losing?

Not all is hopeless for the Giants, as there are a few rays of hope out there. Manning, for all his inconsistencies, still has the talent that made him the top pick a few years ago, and if he can tap into that, he could make a big difference. Jeremy Shockey is an elite talent at tight end in spite of his elite mouth, and Brandon Jacobs could be a solid starter at running back.

That's a few too many if's for Coughlin to save his job though.


NFC North

1. Chicago Bears - Division Winners, host Wild Card game

The most important man on the offensive side of the ball this season is going to be.....Cedric Benson. Not who most people would put the emphasis on, but when the passing game was struggling last year it was the running game that helped take a bit of the pressure off and keep the Bears in games. If the running game - which was ranked only 15th last year - falls off appreciably without Thomas Jones, then that is going to put a whole lot of added pressure on Rex Grossman.

More pressure is one thing that Grossman doesn't need as there will eventually there will be a straw that breaks the camel's back. Grossman will not answer any of the doubters - or get a contract extension - until he puts the Bears on his back and wins a meaningful game essentially on his own, something he has the talent to do. Let's not forget that the reason why Grossman's bad games are so maddening is that he can be so good. Leveling off to just an OK level would do this team wonders.

Defensively, I was ready to talk about how much Lance Briggs holdout would hurt the team by not allowing Brian Urlacher to be the dominant force he can be, on top of Tank Johnson no longer being around. However, with reports that Briggs will be on board for the entire season, and Tommie Harris being on track for a full recovery, the defense should be just as good as it was last year, if not better.

The defense will keep them in almost every game and, if Benson and Grossman play consistently, the offense should win a lot more than they lose.


2. Green Bay Packers - challenging for the Wild Card

Can the old lion make one more run at the playoffs with one of the youngest group of pups in the league? Brett Favre returns for one more season, and the supporting cast might be good enough to help him into the off season one last time.

The biggest question comes at running back, a position that Ahman Green manned so ably for seven years. Green is off to greener pastures (pardon the bad pun) in Houston, leaving former Texan Vernand Morrency to pick up the slack. He averaged 4.6 YPC in relief of Green last year, and if he is able to do that this year, the Pack should be Wild Card contenders until the final weekend.

The rest of the offense looks good. Donald Driver is as underrated a #1 receiver as there is in the league. He'll be joined by second year man Greg Jennings, who showed good potential, even while playing through a fairly severe ankle injury. If tight end Bubba Franks manages to rebound to any sort of relevance, the Pack should put up some big point totals.

Defensively, the Pack were good last year, and a very young group of starters - only one player on the defense will be over 30 on opening day - returns intact. A year of experience for players like AJ Hawk will do nothing by make them better, as will another year under coordinator Bob Sanders tutelage. The secondary and linebacking corps are both solid, but the key to the defense will be the pass rush, led by Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. If they improve upon their 46 sacks last season, the defense could be dominant.

3. Detroit Lions - not in the playoffs

When Jon Kitna came out and said the Lions would win at least 10 games this season, I wondered what planet he was living on. Confidence is nice to have, but for a team that has won only 22 games in the past five year, that might be a bit much to swallow.

That's not to say things aren't (finally) going in the right direction for the Lions. Coach Rod Marinelli had brought some much needed discipline to the team, and the pieces have slowly come together under offensive guru Mike Martz. Jon Kitna is a solid QB which a lot of teams would love to have as their starter, and will put up big numbers this year with a group of receivers that was well above average even before adding Calvin Johnson in the draft.

They revamped the running game by picking up Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett in the off season, preparing for the liklihood that Kevin Jones won't be ready for opening day. Bell should be able to handle the load, especially since tackle Geroge Foster also came over from the Broncos in the trade for Dre Bly. When he returns, Jones could ideally slide into being a productive third down back, as he is a pass catching threat out of the back field. Even if they end up as a running back by committee, they should improve on the pathetic 70 yards they averaged last year.

The defense has the potential to be good, but that would require every player playing up to their potential. Since it is almost a guarantee that someone will disappoint, I doubt they will be as good as they could be. However, if Shaun Rogers is healthy for a full season and Cory Redding didn't peak in his 8 game run last year, they will be better than the atrocity they were last year.

With a high scoring offense and hopefully and not as highly scored on defense, Lions games should at least be exciting this year, even if they don't come too close to 10 wins. Maybe next year though.....

4. Minnesota Vikings - not in the playoffs

It's going to be an ugly year for Vikings fans. No ifs, ands or buts about that one.

The offense is all about youth. Tarvaris Jackson will get his first full season in at QB after not showing a whole lot after taking over late last year. He has some skill, but not too many rookies or second year starters can step in and lead a team on their own. He has no one to really throw to, as Bear and Titan cast off Bobby Wade is projected to be the top wideout this year, with rookies and unproven players behind him on the depth chart.

The running game is the only part of the offense that looks respectable, with 1200 yard rusher Chester Taylor returning to share time with first round pick Adrian Jackson. They will put up some numbers, but teams that don't have to respect the pass will be able to stack the line against them.

The defense was the bright spot last year, as they were tops in the league against the run , though they were awful against the pass. With coordinator Mike Tomlin gone to coach the Steelers, a drop off can be expected on this side of the ball. They couldn't produce a decent pass rush last year, and they added no one to make that change this year. You know you have issues when you have one of the top two or three corners in the game in Antoine Winfield and still give up an average of 240 yards per game through the air. If the pass rush issues continue, look for teams to pick apart everyone on the secondary not named Winfield.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints - Division Winners, 1st Round Bye

The Saints won't surprise anyone this year, but that doesn't mean anyone will be able to stop them either. They had the top passing attack in the league last year and have actually improved it going into this season. Add that to Reggie Bush likely improving as a runner and these guys are scary on the offensive side of the ball.

Drew Brees will have second year standout Marques Colston to throw to again, and that combo should improve from last years 70 catches and 8 TD's now that they know how good Colston is. Top draft pick Robert Meachem should start as the second receiver and should develop into a valuable possession receiver. They also added skilled tight end Eric Johnson to further bolster the passing attack.

The running game is potentially just as scary, with Deuce McAllister being as solid as ever and Bush developing into one of the top threats in the league. He learned late last year that it is sometimes better to allow himself to be stopped at the line for no gain than to try and make something out of nothing and get caught for a loss. Look for a massive improvement in his 3.6 YPC to go along with another 80+ catch season.

Defensively, they remain pretty much the same, though they did add depth to a secondary that helped them rank 3rd in the league against the pass last year. They were not as good against the run, but another year in the system and growth should help them improve on that a bit, if not much. With an offense that good though, they just need a defense that won't get blown out with any regularity and they certainly have that.

2. Carolina Panthers - Wild Card team

The Panthers will be looking to make the disappointment of last season a distant memory, and have made the changes necessary to accomplish that.

With a fully healthy line coming into the season, the Panthers have switched to a zone blocking scheme which suits the skills of the line much better, and should open up more room for a running game that was shut down last year. With a running game that is consistently eating up yards, QB Jake Delhomme should return to his Pro Bowl form after a bad year.

Delhomme also suffered from the injuries to his linemen , getting sacked much more than he was accustomed to. He still has Steve Smith to throw too, so should improve on his 17 TD throws form last year. If he falters though, look for David Carr to step in and be productive.

Defensively, the Panthers should continue to be solid, and may even improve form their ranking of 7th last year. Julius Peppers leads a disruptive pass rush which can throw any team off their game and, if Dan Morgan plays a full season, the linebacking corps should step up to stop the run. If they get solid play out of a secondary lacking stars, the Panthers might not need to score much to win a lot.

Atlanta Falcons - not in the playoffs

I would have picked the Falcons to miss the playoffs even before the whole Michael Vick debacle, though here is something you might not believe - the team might actually be better off WITHOUT Vick.

If you have the right kind of character on your team, adversity can make it band together and actually play above their talent level. Even without Vick, the Falcons should again be one of the top rushing teams in the league behind the dynamic duo of Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood, and they have the defensive talent to keep games at least close.

The major change, of course, will be with Joey Harrington at QB. With a solid running game around him, Harrington's passing ability could very well improve the offense by adding a dimension Vick never seemed to have as a passer. Harrington did OK in Miami last year, and all reports are that he is adjusting well to new coach Bobby Petrino's offense. He could surprise everyone and have a solid if not spectacular season.

I would bet they would still love to undo that Matt Schaub trade though.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Not in the playoffs

Jon Gruden is either the most overrated coach in the league or a genius who keeps tinkering until he gets things right.

He has definitely been tinkering this year, bringing in Jeff Garcia and naming him the starter over promising youngster Chris Simms, even before training camp starts. After that vote of confidence, Tampa was the first place calling when Daunte Culpepper was released. As with almost all Gruden teams, the QB situation should be making news all year long.

Elsewehere on offense, they improved the offensive line with Luke Pettitgout and draftee Arron Sears, so Cadillac Williams will have no excuse not to have a big year. BJ Askew was added to be a lead blocker as well. Receiver is a bit of a problem position behind the ageless Joey Galloway, who had better stay ageless or it won't matter who is throwing the ball - there won't be anyone to catch them.

The vaunted Tampa Bay defense fell to 17th in the league as the core group of players are nearing their expiry date, so the Bucs made seven defensive draft picks. The top pick was defensive end Gaines Adams, who will be relied upon to help revive a stagnant pass rush that produced only 25 sacks in 2006. Kevin Carter was brought in from Miami to help out as well, and Larry Coyer was brought in to coach the revamped defensive front. The secondary is still solid, though produced only 11 interceptions last year.

This is Gruden's first do or die year in his career, and how he handles it will impact how this team does. If all the offensive tinkering pays off, the Bucs could get out of the basement, but Gruden will likely keep tinkering until they're eliminated, which could be early in the season as they have a very tough start to the schedule.

NFC West

1. St Louis Rams - Division Winner, host Wild Card game

The Rams were 8-8 last year while giving up almost 150 yards on the ground each game and almost 25 points. In order to jump ahead of the Seahawks, who have been the class of a weak division the past few years, they remade that porous defense.

Sixth year veteran James Hall was brought in from Detroit to help the pass rush, while they used their first pick on tackle Adam Carriker to help stuff the run. Leonard Little will enjoy the help at end that Hall will give, and might even improve on his 13 sacks now that he has someone to split the attention with. The secondary is starless but solid, while the linebackers are the weakest group on defense, but should be helped by the new concentration on run stopping from the line.

If the defense can cut back on the points allowed just a bit, the offense is more than ready to step up and take the Rams to the next level. Marc Bulger - provided he doesn't hold out - will lead a group that could put up the most points in the league. Stephen Jackson is second only to LaDanian Tomlinson as an all around threat out of the backfield, and he actually put up more total yards than his Charger counterpart last year. At receiver, they added Drew Bennett and Dante Hall to accent the duo of Tory Hold and Isaac Bruce, one of the top tandems of all time.

The pieces are in place for the Greatest Show on Turf to make a revival. If the defense responds to the attention the Rams paid to it this off season, it could be quite a successful run.

2. Seattle Seahawks - challenging for the Wild Card

The offense is starting age, as their two major stars - QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander - will both be over 30 on opening day. It's an age that is not kind to rushers who have carried as much as Alexander has, and Hasselbeck has had injury issues. Even when he is healthy though, he has shown a tendency towards inconsistent play and inaccurate throwing. If these two rebound to their 2005 form, things should be OK for the 'hawks, but if they're anything like they were last year it will be a long season.

Hasselbeck could have the best receiver he has ever played with if Deion Branch is fully adjusted to the offense, which he should be by now. Beyond Branch though, the receiving corps is not deep as third year vet DJ Hackett will be the second starter and an aging Bobby Engram will be the third receiver. Branch was Tom Brady's favorite option when he was a Patriot, but Patriot receivers have not done well after leaving the nest. Branch will have to break that trend in order for the Seahawks to make the playoffs.

Much like many other teams in the conference, the defense in Seattle won't scare anyone, but it just needs to avoid blow outs to give the offense a chance to win. They did concentrate on the D in the draft, using their first three picks on CB Josh Wilson, DT Brandon Mebane and DE Baraka Atkins. Since they gave up their first round pick to the Pats for Branch, they didn't have a pick until 55th overall, but they did OK with they had.

In free agency, they added Patrick Kerney who, if he stays healthy, should help out the pass rush. The secondary is a mix, as it is weak at corner and strong at safety. Like I said, the defense isn't designed to win, just to not lose. It might be a recipe to get back to the playoffs, but not win to put another ring on Mike Holmgren's finger.

3. San Fransico 49ers - not in the playoffs, but might make some Wild Card noise

As the younger players start to mature, it seems that the 49ers are slowly rising out of the mess they faced in the first few years of this century. Alex Smith rebounded from a horrible rookie season to show a lot of promise in his second year. He looked a lot more poised on the field and responded with nearly 3000 yards throwing while upping his TD total and reducing his INT's.

A big reason that Smith made the advances that he did was the maturation of Frank Gore into a top running back, leading the team in both rushing and catching. With defenses having to account for Gore, it allowed Smith a lot more time in the pocket to make plays. He will have a new toy this year as well, as they traded for former Seahawk Darrell Jackson. While not a superstar - and possibly a slight attitude problem - Jackson was productive last year, with 63 catches and 10 TD's. Fifth year receiver Arnaz Battle is a solid second option, but they may be wasting time with Ashley Lelie who has come no where near his potential with either Denver or Atlanta.

They spent BIG money on the defense in the off season, bringing in LB Tully Banta-Cain from the Patriots to help out on the pass rush and then spending a ridiculous amount of money on CB Nate Clements. Clements definitely upgrades a weak position for the Niners, but at $90 million was it worth it? Their top pick in the draft was LB Patrick Willis, who should step in and start on the inside immediately.

The offensive pieces are coming together, and a year from now, the defense may have gelled enough to make the 49ers a legitimate threat in the NFC.

4. Arizona Cardinals - not in the playoffs

You know that saying you hear at the start of every season? How every team is a playoff contender until the ball is snapped? I think they coined that phrase about the Cardinals. Each year is supposed to be THE year that they break out and contend, but this will not be THE year.

Offensively, they have three stars and a potential star. Running back Edgerrin James has had a Hall of Fame career, but must feel like a tool after watching the Colts win the Super Bowl without him while he averaged 3.4 YPC playing behind traditionally the worst line in the league. How that affects his ego will have as much to do with how he bounces back as how the line plays in front of him this year.

The passing game is in good shape, lead by two All Pro wideouts in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. They'll be catching passes thrown by a potential future All Pro in Matt Leinart, who showed that he could play in the league last year. What level he'll play at could very well be decided this year.

Most of the problems with the Cardinals stem from their inconsistency on the offensive line. No team can win without a decent line, and the Cardinals have juggled a new one together out of a top five pick in Levi Brown, a former Cowboy backup in center Al Johnson, a free agent from the Bills in Mike Gandy, Oliver Ross who was a backup tackle for them last year, and Reggie Wells, who started at right tackle last year but moves to left guard. Stranger things have happened, and chemistry counts for more on the offensive line than it does almost anywhere else in sports, but it has the makings of another long season in the desert.

The defense that was awful last year - remember that Monday night game against the Bears? - switches to more of a 3-4 scheme under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt, who saw how much success the Steelers had with that scheme over the years.

Whisenhunt may be the coach to finally lead the Cardinals out of the basement, but it will take at least a year of figuring things out - especially the offensive line - to make it all work.

source:www.411mania.com